Horraantii Oktoobar, qiimaha macdanta birta waxay la kulmeen dib u soo kabasho muddo gaaban ah, taasoo ugu wacan horumarka la filayay ee ku yimid faa'iidada baahida iyo kicinta qiimaha xamuulka badda oo sii kordhaya. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, markii warshadaha birta ay xoojiyeen xayiraadaha wax soo saarkooda isla markaana, heerka xamuulka badda uu si weyn hoos ugu dhacay. Qiimaha ayaa gaaray heerkii ugu hooseeyay sanadka gudahiisa. Marka la eego qiimaha dhabta ah, qiimaha macdanta birta sanadkan wuxuu hoos u dhacay in ka badan 50% marka loo eego heerka ugu sarreeya, qiimuhuna horey ayuu hoos ugu dhacay. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka laga eego aasaaska sahayda iyo baahida, kaydka dekedaha ee hadda jira wuxuu gaaray heerkii ugu sarreeyay isla muddadaas afartii sano ee la soo dhaafay. Maadaama dekeddu ay sii kordhayso, qiimaha macdanta birta ee daciifka ah ee sanadkan way adkaan doontaa in la beddelo.
Shixnadaha macdanta ee caadiga ah ayaa weli kordhay
Bishii Oktoobar, shixnadaha birta ee Australia iyo Brazil ayaa hoos u dhacay sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya iyo bilba bisha. Dhinac, waxay sabab u ahayd dayactirka macdanta. Dhanka kale, shixnadaha badda ee badan ayaa saameeyay shixnadaha birta ee macdanaha qaar ilaa xad. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sida ku cad xisaabinta bartilmaameedka sanadka maaliyadeed, sahayda afarta macdan ee waaweyn ee rubuca afraad waxay yeelan doontaa koror gaar ah sannadba sanadka ka dambeeya iyo bilba bisha.
Wax soo saarka macdanta birta ee Rio Tinto ee rubuci saddexaad ayaa hoos u dhacay 2.6 milyan oo tan sannadkiiba. Sida laga soo xigtay bartilmaameedka sanadlaha ah ee Rio Tinto ee 320 milyan oo tan, wax soo saarka rubuci afraad wuxuu kordhi doonaa 1 milyan oo tan marka loo eego rubuci hore, taasoo ah hoos u dhac sanadle ah oo ah 1.5 milyan oo tan. Wax soo saarka macdanta birta ee BHP ee rubuci saddexaad ayaa hoos u dhacay 3.5 milyan oo tan sannadkiiba, laakiin waxay sii wadday bartilmaameedkeedii sannad-maaliyadeedka ee 278 milyan-288 milyan oo tan oo aan isbeddelin, waxaana la filayaa inuu horumaro rubuci afraad. FMG si fiican ayuu u soo raray saddexdii rubuc ee ugu horreeyay. Rubuci saddexaad, wax soo saarku wuxuu kordhay 2.4 milyan oo tan sannad-maaliyadeedka. Sannad-maaliyadeedka 2022 (Luulyo 2021-Juun 2022), hagidda rarista macdanta birta waxaa la ilaaliyay inta u dhaxaysa 180 milyan ilaa 185 milyan oo tan. Kordhin yar ayaa sidoo kale la filayaa rubuci afraad. Wax soo saarka Vale ee rubuci saddexaad ayaa kordhay 750,000 oo tan sannadkiiba. Sida laga soo xigtay xisaabinta 325 milyan oo tan sannadka oo dhan, wax soo saarka rubuci afraad ayaa kordhay 2 milyan oo tan marka loo eego rubuci hore, kaas oo kordhi doona 7 milyan oo tan sannad-sannadeed. Guud ahaan, wax soo saarka macdanta birta ee afarta macdan ee waaweyn rubuci afraad ayaa kordhi doona in ka badan 3 milyan oo tan bishiiba iyo in ka badan 5 milyan oo tan sannadkiiba. Inkasta oo qiimaha hooseeya uu saameyn ku leeyahay shixnadaha macdanta, haddana macdanaha waaweyn ayaa weli faa'iido leh waxaana la filayaa inay gaaraan bartilmaameedyadooda sannadka oo dhan iyagoon si ula kac ah u dhimin shixnadaha macdanta birta.
Marka laga hadlayo macdanta aan caadiga ahayn, laga bilaabo qeybtii labaad ee sanadka, macdanta birta ee Shiinaha laga keeno wadamada aan caadiga ahayn ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacday sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya. Qiimaha macdanta birta ayaa hoos u dhacay, wax soo saarka macdanta birta ah ee qiimaha sare lehna wuxuu bilaabay inuu hoos u dhaco. Sidaa darteed waxaa la filayaa in soo dejinta macdanta aan caadiga ahayn ay sii wadi doonto inay hoos u dhacdo sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya, laakiin saameynta guud ma noqon doonto mid aad u weyn.
Marka laga hadlayo macdanta gudaha, inkastoo xamaasadda wax soo saarka ee macdanta gudaha ay sidoo kale hoos u dhacayso, marka la eego in xayiraadaha wax soo saarka ee Sebtembar ay aad u xooggan yihiin, wax soo saarka bilaha ah ee macdanta birta ee rubuca afraad asal ahaan kama yaraan doono kan Sebtembar. Sidaa darteed, macdanta gudaha waxaa la filayaa inay sii ahaato mid siman rubuca afraad, iyadoo sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya la dhimayo qiyaastii 5 milyan oo tan.
Guud ahaan, waxaa jiray koror ku yimid shixnadaha macdanta ee caadiga ah rubuci afraad. Isla mar ahaantaana, marka la eego in wax soo saarka birta doofaarka ee dibadda uu sidoo kale hoos u dhacayo bil-bil, saamiga macdanta birta ee loo diro Shiinaha ayaa la filayaa inuu soo kabto. Sidaa darteed, macdanta birta ee loo diro Shiinaha ayaa kordhi doonta sannad-sanad iyo bil-bil. Macdanta aan caadiga ahayn iyo macdanaha gudaha ayaa laga yaabaa inay hoos u dhacaan sannad-sanad. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, booska hoos u dhaca bisha-bil waa xaddidan yahay. Wadarta sahayda rubuci afraad wali way sii kordheysaa.
Kaydka dekadda ayaa lagu hayaa xaalad daal ah
Uruurinta macdanta birta ee dekedaha qeybtii labaad ee sanadka aad bay u caddahay, taas oo sidoo kale tilmaamaysa saadka iyo baahida macdanta birta oo yaraatay. Tan iyo Oktoobar, heerka ururinta ayaa mar kale xawli ku soo kordhay. Laga bilaabo Oktoobar 29, kaydka macdanta birta ee dekeddu wuxuu gaaray 145 milyan oo tan, taasoo ah qiimaha ugu sarreeya isla muddadaas afartii sano ee la soo dhaafay. Sida laga soo xigtay xisaabinta xogta sahayda, kaydka dekeddu wuxuu gaari karaa 155 milyan oo tan dhammaadka sanadkan, cadaadiska goobta saaranna wuu sii weynaan doonaa markaas.
Taageerada dhinaca kharashka ayaa bilaabmaysa inay daciifto
Horraantii Oktoobar, waxaa jiray dib u soo kabasho yar oo ku timid suuqa macdanta birta, qayb ahaan sababtoo ah saameynta kor u kaca qiimaha xamuulka badda. Waqtigaas, xamuulka C3 ee ka imanaya Tubarao, Brazil ilaa Qingdao, Shiinaha wuxuu mar ku dhowaa US$50/ton, laakiin waxaa jiray hoos u dhac weyn dhawaanahan. Xamuulka ayaa hoos ugu dhacay US$24/ton bishii Nofeembar 3, xamuulka badda ee ka imanaya Galbeedka Australia una socda Shiinaha wuxuu ahaa US$12 oo keliya. /Tan. Qiimaha macdanta birta ee macdanta caadiga ah asal ahaan wuxuu ka hooseeyaa US$30/ton. Sidaa darteed, inkastoo qiimaha macdanta birta uu si weyn hoos ugu dhacay, macdantu asal ahaan wali waa faa'iido, taageerada kharashkana waxay noqon doontaa mid daciif ah.
Guud ahaan, inkastoo qiimaha macdanta birta uu hoos u dhacay sanadka gudahiisa, haddana weli meel ayaa ka hooseysa haddii ay tahay dhinaca aasaaska sahayda iyo baahida ama dhinaca kharashka. Waxaa la filayaa in xaaladda daciifka ah ay isbeddeli doonto sanadkan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxaa la filayaa in qiimaha saxanka ee mustaqbalka macdanta birta uu yeelan karo taageero ku dhow 500 yuan/ton, sababtoo ah qiimaha budada gaarka ah ee aadka u gaarka ah oo u dhiganta qiimaha saxanka ee 500 yuan/ton waa ku dhawaad ​​320 yuan/ton, taasoo u dhow heerka ugu hooseeya 4 sano gudahood. Tani waxay sidoo kale yeelan doontaa taageero kharash ah. Isla mar ahaantaana, iyadoo laga duulayo in faa'iidada halkii tan ee saxanka birta ah ay weli sarreyso, waxaa jiri kara lacag lagu dhimo saamiga macdanta snail, kaas oo si dadban u taageeraya qiimaha macdanta birta.